Minority Salience and Criminal Justice Decisions with Nadine Ketel (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam) and Olivier Marie (Erasmus University Rotterdam)
American Economic Review: Insights, 2026, 8 (1): 90-108
Abstract: Decision-makers can exhibit biases when they overemphasize particularly salient features under limited attention. We exploit a sudden salience shock involving individuals of Moroccan descent to examine biases within the Dutch criminal justice system. The salience shock concerned the assassination of a defense attorney by organized crime and thus specifically targeted the justice system. Leveraging high-quality data covering arrest through appeal, we find no impact on police or prosecutor decisions but uncover a 71% increase in sentence lengths imposed by judges on salient individuals. Heterogeneity analyses suggest that judge experience with minority suspects can mitigate bias in these more discretionary decisions.
Presentations: 12th Workshop on the Economics of Risky Behavior, LSE (UK, 2023); KVS New Paper Sessions, The Hague (NL, 2023); 35th Conference of the European Association for Labor Economists, Charles University Prague (CZ, 2023); Workshop on the Economics of Crime and Victimization, University of Gothenburg (SE, 2023); Workshop for Guido Imbens’ honorary doctorate, Erasmus University Rotterdam (NL, 2023); COMPIE Conference, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (NL, 2024); 15th Transatlantic Workshop on the Economics of Crime, ETH Zurich (CH, 2024); invited seminar at CPB (Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis), The Hague (NL, 2025); invited seminar at Linnaeus University, Växjö (SE, 2025)
Media coverage: de Correspondent, Financieel Dagblad, NRC, Trouw, het Parool, NOS, NL Times, NPO Radio 1, Mr. Online, Backbone Magazine
Podcast episode: De Nieuwe Economen Podcast (in Dutch, available online, on Spotify and Apple podcasts)
The Fast and the Studious? Ramadan Observance and Student Performance with Olivier Marie and Marco Musumeci (accepted at Journal of Population Economics)
Abstract: We study the impact of religious obligations conflicting with civic duties, focusing on the performance of Muslim students when Ramadan overlapped with end-of-secondary-school exams in the Netherlands. Using administrative data and a machine learning model to estimate fasting probability, we document significant declines in academic performance and pass rates, particularly among low achievers and those in religiously segregated schools. This impact longer-term outcomes, with a 22% increase in the dropout rates. We suggest scheduling exams in the afternoon, allowing students to rest in the morning, as a practical policy to limit the adverse effects of Ramadan on academic performance.
Older working papers: TI, CEPR
Presentations: Dutch Economists' Day, The Hague (NL, 2022); CESifo / ifo Junior Workshop on the Economics of Education, Munich (DE, 2023); 13th International Workshop on Applied Economics of Education, Catanzaro (IT, 2023)
Columns: ESB; VoxEU; Backbone Magazine
Media coverage: Algemeen Dagblad, NRC, NOS Stories, NRC
Revealed Trust in Police with Anna Bindler (University of Potsdam, DIW Berlin) and Randi Hjalmarsson (University of Gothenburg)
Abstract: Trust is a key ingredient for effective institutions but is inherently difficult to observe. We show that trust can be revealed through an individual’s willingness to entrust institutions with sensitive personal information. Using more than three million police stops in England and Wales, we operationalize this idea by measuring whether subjects decline to self-report ethnicity to officers. Ethnicity disclosure strongly tracks independent survey measures of trust in police across time, geography, demographic groups, and dimensions of trust. The high-frequency and local variation in our new measure of trust in police allow us to study how it responds to information shocks about officer misconduct. We find that the 2021 kidnapping, rape, and murder of Sarah Everard by an off-duty London Metropolitan police officer immediately reduced ethnicity disclosure (by 2.4%) in London, with little evidence of large spillovers elsewhere. There is an even larger decline following news of severe misconduct by another officer from the same unit, while subsequent investigations and reports had little effect.
Presentations: invited seminar at Jönköping University (SE, 2026), 5th Workshop on the Economics of Crime for Junior Scholars at IFS London (UK, 2026)
Unlocking Female Potential: How Parttime Work Transformed the (Dutch) Labor Market with Esmée Zwiers (University of Amsterdam)
Presentations: 36th Conference of the European Association for Labor Economists, NHH Bergen (NO, 2024)
Mental Health (Care), Crime and Victimisation
Substance Abuse Treatment in Prison with Ronja Helénsdotter (MIT), Randi Hjalmarsson and Matthew Lindquist (Stockholm University)