Minority Salience and Criminal Justice Decisions with Nadine Ketel (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam) and Olivier Marie (Erasmus University Rotterdam)
American Economic Review: Insights, 2026, 8 (1): 90-108.
Abstract: Decision-makers can exhibit biases when they overemphasize particularly salient features under limited attention. We exploit a sudden salience shock involving individuals of Moroccan descent to examine biases within the Dutch criminal justice system. The salience shock concerned the assassination of a defense attorney by organized crime and thus specifically targeted the justice system. Leveraging high-quality data covering arrest through appeal, we find no impact on police or prosecutor decisions but uncover a 71% increase in sentence lengths imposed by judges on salient individuals. Heterogeneity analyses suggest that judge experience with minority suspects can mitigate bias in these more discretionary decisions.
Older working papers: IZA, TI.
Presentations: 12th Workshop on the Economics of Risky Behavior, LSE (UK, 2023); KVS New Paper Sessions, The Hague (NL, 2023); 35th Conference of the European Association for Labor Economists, Charles University Prague (CZ, 2023); Workshop on the Economics of Crime and Victimization, University of Gothenburg (SE, 2023); Workshop for Guido Imbens’ honorary doctorate, Erasmus University Rotterdam (NL, 2023); COMPIE Conference, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (NL, 2024); 15th Transatlantic Workshop on the Economics of Crime, ETH Zurich (CH, 2024); invited seminar at CPB (Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis), The Hague (NL, 2025); invited seminar at Linnaeus University, Växjö (SE, 2025)
Media coverage: de Correspondent, Financieel Dagblad, NRC, Trouw, het Parool, NOS, NL Times, NPO Radio 1, Mr. Online, Backbone Magazine
Podcast episode: De Nieuwe Economen Podcast (in Dutch, available online, on Spotify and Apple podcasts)
The Fast and the Studious? Ramadan Observance and Student Performance with Olivier Marie and Marco Musumeci (University of Padova)
Journal of Population Economics, 2026, 39 (4): 70.
Abstract: We study the impact of religious obligations conflicting with civic duties, focusing on the performance of Muslim students when Ramadan overlapped with end-of-secondary-school exams in the Netherlands. Using administrative data and a machine learning model to estimate fasting probability, we document significant declines in academic performance and pass rates, particularly among low achievers and those in religiously segregated schools. This impact longer-term outcomes, with a 22% increase in the dropout rates. We suggest scheduling exams in the afternoon, allowing students to rest in the morning, as a practical policy to limit the adverse effects of Ramadan on academic performance.
Older working papers: IZA, TI, CEPR.
Presentations: Dutch Economists' Day, The Hague (NL, 2022); CESifo / ifo Junior Workshop on the Economics of Education, Munich (DE, 2023); 13th International Workshop on Applied Economics of Education, Catanzaro (IT, 2023)
Columns: ESB; VoxEU; Backbone Magazine
Media coverage: Algemeen Dagblad, NRC, NOS Stories, NRC
Revealed Trust in Police with Anna Bindler (University of Potsdam, DIW Berlin) and Randi Hjalmarsson (University of Gothenburg)
Abstract: Trust is a key ingredient for effective institutions but is inherently difficult to observe. We show that trust can be revealed through an individual’s willingness to entrust institutions with sensitive personal information. Using more than three million police stops in England and Wales, we operationalize this idea by measuring whether subjects decline to self-report ethnicity to officers. Ethnicity disclosure strongly tracks independent survey measures of trust in police across time, geography, demographic groups, and dimensions of trust. The high-frequency and local variation in our new measure of trust in police allow us to study how it responds to information shocks about officer misconduct. We find that the 2021 kidnapping, rape, and murder of Sarah Everard by an off-duty London Metropolitan police officer immediately reduced ethnicity disclosure (by 2.4%) in London, with little evidence of large spillovers elsewhere. There is an even larger decline following news of severe misconduct by another officer from the same unit, while subsequent investigations and reports had little effect.
Presentations: invited seminar at Jönköping University (SE, 2026); 5th Workshop on the Economics of Crime for Junior Scholars at IFS (UK, 2026); invited seminar at SOFI (SE, 2026); 17th Transatlantic Workshop on the Economics of Crime at Cornell University (US, 2026)
Part-Time Work and the Transformation of Female Labor Supply: Evidence from the Netherlands with Esmée Zwiers (University of Amsterdam)
Abstract: Female labor force participation rose sharply across advanced economies in the 20th century, but we know little about the role of part-time work in this rise. We show that in the Netherlands—a country with both high female labor force participation and the highest prevalence of part-time work in the OECD—this increase is almost entirely a part-time phenomenon. By combining several historical labor market data sources spanning nearly 50 years, we track women’s labor market attachment and occupational choices over time. A shift-share decomposition shows that the increase is driven by married, low-educated women entering the labor force, rather than by shifts in marriage or educational attainment. We then assess potential explanations for this shift, including sorting into part-time-friendly sectors, changing social norms surrounding maternal employment, and labor market policies that encourage female employment.
Presentations: 36th Conference of the European Association for Labor Economists, NHH Bergen (NO, 2024)
The Mental Health Consequences of Offender Release for Crime Victims
Substance Abuse Treatment in Prison with Ronja Helénsdotter (Stockholm University), Randi Hjalmarsson and Matthew Lindquist (Stockholm University)